4,174 Restaurants Can Open in Canada This Year. Here's the Math (And How We're Helping Make It Happen)

Did you know, Canada can open 4,174 new restaurants in 2026. Not as a wild bet. Not as oversupply. As a measured response to population growth, market demand, and communities that need more food options.

Here’s the homework the media won’t do.

Canada has 737 municipalities with populations of 5,000 or more WikipediaStatistics Canada. That’s 737 communities where people live, work, eat, and need places to gather.

Here’s the allocation based on population size:

Tier 1 (5,000 to 10,000 people): 2 restaurants each (Very Real)

Tier 2 (10,000 to 50,000 people): 5 restaurants each (Even More Real)

Tier 3 (50,000+ people): 20 restaurants each

Total: 674 + 1,500 + 2,000 = 4,174 new restaurants in 2026

Before you panic about oversaturation, let’s break down what this actually means on the ground.

A town of 7,500 people gets 2 new restaurants:

You probably have, A Tim Hortons. A Subway. A Boston Pizza. A Chinese restaurant. A pizza joint. A diner. Maybe a handful more.

A city of 25,000 people gets 5 new restaurants:

Five new locations is a 5% to 7% expansion.

That’s one ethnic restaurant. One cafe. One pub. One fast casual spot near the new subdivision. One family restaurant that stays open past 8 pm.

Your main street can handle it. Your community probably needs it.

A city of 250,000 people gets 20 new restaurants:

Twenty new locations is a 1.6% to 2.5% increase.

That’s barely visible across an entire metro area. That’s normal growth in a healthy market.

Toronto. Population 2.93 million in the city, over 6 million in the GTA.

Under this model, Toronto gets roughly 300 new restaurants spread across the entire metropolitan area.

300 restaurants ÷ 6 million people = 1 new restaurant per 20,000 residents - Really… That didn’t hit the headlines and it should.

The GTA covers over 7,000 square kilometres. Restaurants Canada reports 45% of Canadians buy from a restaurant once a week or more.

One new restaurant per 20,000 people is not a flood. It’s barely keeping up.

Calgary grew 5.8% from July 2023 to July 2024 Statistics Canada. That’s roughly 90,000 new people. If Calgary opens 120 new restaurants in 2026, that’s one location per 750 new residents.

Edmonton grew 4.5%. Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo grew 4.9%. Vancouver grew 4.2%. Toronto grew 3.9% Statistics Canada.

Population growth is outpacing restaurant development everywhere. The 4,174 number isn’t aggressive. It’s playing catch up.

In 2024, Canadian food services and drinking places posted $96.5 billion in sales, up 4.0% from 2023. Full service rose 2.2%. Limited service rose 5.5%. Every province grew.

Canada has roughly 102,789 food service establishments right now.

4,174 new restaurants = 4.1% growth

In an industry that hit $96.5 billion in sales and grew in every format and every province, a 4.1% expansion in 2026 is not reckless.

It’s normal. And it’s still trailing population growth in most markets.

This is where Canada’s Restaurant Guy comes in.

For over 20 years, he’s been doing something these headline folks won’t. Instead of fear mongering and doom headlines, he’s been helping thousands of people get into this industry and succeed.

Teaching them what works. Showing them the path. Supporting them through the hard parts. Celebrating the wins. Learning from the losses.

Through his number one restaurant podcast, The Late Night Restaurant Show, he’s been having real conversations about real operations. Not theory. Not textbooks. Real talk with real operators about what actually works.

And now, through Ashton Media, that mission is expanding to reach everyone who wants in.

We’re done with the fear cycle.

“4,000 restaurants closing.” “Industry in crisis.” “Failure guaranteed.” “Market saturated.” “Don’t even try.”

It’s lazy. It ignores the numbers. And it keeps good operators out of markets that desperately need them.

Instead, we’re building solutions:

We promote operators doing it right. The ones with clean systems, disciplined costs, trained teams, and clear positioning. The ones making money while copycats struggle. The ones proving the model works.

We share what actually works. Menu engineering that drives profit. Scheduling that doesn’t burn people out. Training that keeps teams for years. Concepts solving real local needs, not copying franchises.

We connect people with resources. Tech who delivers. Trainers who know the business. Systems that function. Technology that helps.

We tell the truth about closures. Some fail because of bad management. But closures also happen from retirements, landlord issues, family changes, health problems, and neighbourhood shifts. Not every closure proves oversupply.

We build community. Operators supporting each other instead of racing to the bottom. Knowledge shared. People helping people succeed.

This is what Canada’s Restaurant Guy has done for over two decades. Through Ashton Media, we’re scaling it for 2026 and beyond.

This industry feeds people. It employs people. It gives newcomers their first Canadian job and young workers their first shot at management.

Restaurants Canada reports 45% of Canadians buy from a restaurant once a week or more. This isn’t luxury. This is how Canadians live.

When cities grow at 5.8%, restaurants fill the gap. When suburbs sprawl with nothing to eat nearby, restaurants solve it. When industrial parks house 5,000 workers with zero food options, restaurants fix it.

This is infrastructure. This is community. This is economic development creating jobs faster than almost any sector.

The people stepping up to fill these gaps deserve support, not headlines telling them they’re doomed.

Yes, labour is tight in high growth markets. Yes, finding people is hard.

That’s not a reason to stop. That’s a reason to help operators get better at running restaurants.

Better training. Better scheduling. Better systems. Better leadership that makes people want to stay.

This is what Canada’s Restaurant Guy teaches. This is what The Late Night Restaurant Show covers every week. This is what Ashton Media builds resources around.

Operators running tight operations attract teams. Operators running chaos just need better systems. We help them build those systems.

Growth forces standards up. Weak operators improve or exit. When we help operators improve instead of warning they’ll fail, everyone wins.

Options close to home. New suburbs and industrial zones finally get food choices. Shorter drives. Money staying local.

Economic multiplier. Every restaurant buys from local trades, distributors, equipment suppliers, services. That spend ripples through communities.

Fast job creation. One opening creates construction work, then 15 to 40 steady jobs, then vendor relationships, then tax revenue. Few sectors move this fast.

Community hubs. Third places where teams meet. Where families celebrate. Where newcomers find belonging. Where neighbourhoods feel like neighbourhoods.

Career pathways. Fastest entry into the workforce. Fastest track to management. Real opportunity for people with drive.

Small towns (5,000 to 10,000): 2 restaurants each = 674 locations

Mid cities (10,000 to 50,000): 5 restaurants each = 1,500 locations

Large cities (50,000+): 20 restaurants each = 2,000 locations

Total in 2026: 4,174 new restaurants across 737 Canadian communities

That’s 2 restaurants in a town of 7,500. That’s 5 in a city of 25,000. That’s 20 in a city of 250,000.

It’s a 4.1% expansion in a $96.5 billion industry that grew in every province last year.

It’s still lagging population growth in the fastest markets.

This isn’t crisis. This is opportunity.

Canada’s Restaurant Guy has spent over 20 years in the trenches. Helping operators open. Survive year one. Scale. Fix what’s broken. Exit when it’s time.

He’s helped thousands get into this industry the right way. The smart way. The sustainable way.

Through The Late Night Restaurant Show, Canada’s number one restaurant podcast, he brings real operators, real suppliers, real stories, and real solutions.

Through Ashton Media, we’re building the infrastructure for 2026:

Educational resources teaching what actually works.

Operator spotlights showcasing success and sharing lessons.

Tech connections linking operators with partners who help them win.

Business solutions from concept to menu to staffing solutions.

Community where operators support each other.

This is what positive looks like. This is what helping people succeed looks like. This is what the industry needs instead of doom.

4,174 restaurants can open across 737 communities this year.

2 in small towns. 5 in mid cities. 20 in large metros.

One per 20,000 residents in big cities. One per 750 new residents in growth markets.

The math says there’s room. The demand says there’s need. The operators doing it right prove it works.

We’re here to help the next 4,174 do it right.

Stop the scare tactics. Start the support.

Canada’s Restaurant Guy and Ashton Media.

Helping people succeed in this industry for over 20 years.

Let’s make 2026 the year we tell a better story.