Follow the Signs

Friends of Branded:

Happy Saturday and I hope you had a great week.

I know, I know, I know.

I was supposed to get more current with my movie & pop culture references and here I am, kicking off this week’s Top of the Fold with a reference from the 1997 romantic comedy, Fools Rush In, starring Matthew Perry and Salma Hayek.

Interesting though, 1997 was a notably significant year for Mr. Perry. In addition to his regarding Fools Rush In as his best performance in a major motion picture, he hosted Saturday Night Live with musical guest Oasis, the sitcom Friends ranked 4th in the Nielsen ratings, missing a position on the medal podium to only to gold medalist and the #1 rated show, ER, #2 Seinfeld, and #3 Suddenly Susan (all NBC shows, no wonder the network called this it’s “Must See TV” line-up) and he took meaningful steps toward battling long-standing addiction issues. That’s a quite a year. RIP Mr. Perry.

We’re moving on from Mr. Perry, but there’s a pivotal moment in the film when a priest tells Matthew Perry that there are signs everywhere to help him find his way.

And that’s how I felt this week. There were signs everywhere and while I know the hospitality industry is battling several tough headwinds & meaningful challenges, I’m bringing this week to a close with optimism, energy, and enthusiasm for what lies ahead.

In an effort to NOT bury the lead, it’s the collaboration and I’ll raise the bar b/c it needs to be raised, it’s the partnership, between operators and technologists that will determine those who come out on top and those who Blockbuster.

That’s right, I’m feeling emboldened this week and taking a word that by all sourced definitions means big, bold, and commercially dominant in the space it’s in, and simply capitalizing the “B” and making this a word of warning and a cautionary tale that if you fail to embrace digital change & innovation, and hold tight to your old model, you will get disrupted, fall behind, and you will lose.

Let me know what you think, does this new meaning of “Blockbuster” have a chance of catching on? 😊

An unrelated thought, if you don’t know what a “rewind fee” means, here’s some suggested reading: Blockbuster laughed Netflix out of the room

Despite my enthusiasm as we bring this week to a close, let’s be clear, the challenges are real and the data (unlike I am), is unemotional.

According to the Summer Restaurant Trends Report (served by our friends at Toast), some of the biggest factors impacting restaurant performance this summer include inflation, discretionary spending, a decline in international summer travelers (sorry Vegas, I know this hits your city harder than any other), and inclement weather.

If you rolled your eyes at the last point about the weather, let me tell you something (Lucy), it’s a BIG deal b/c the performance of the restaurant industry is highly correlated to the weather (and if you own or operate restaurants, you know firsthand how checking the weather forecast is part of your daily routine).

The Summer of 2025 will be on record as among the most perilous in decades as a result of widespread heat waves, humidity, floods, and storms.

When it comes to the consumer, our guests are feeling the pressure and confidence has been slipping. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index fell to about 13.7% year-over-year this month, driven primarily by concerns over rising inflation and income anxiety. Converting The University of Michigan’s sentiment index into what it actually means for restaurants, there’s growing price fatigue and US consumers are eating out less in 2025 compared to 2024 b/c of economic uncertainty and price sensitivity.

And we can’t ignore that there’s tech-fatigue, and it’s understandable that some restaurants are pulling back on guest-facing tech in an effort to return to in-person hospitality and reduce complexity.

Wow, this write-up turned south quickly, right? But wait, that’s not the story and specifically, not what the signs say.

Yes, the challenges are real, but so too are the opportunities. Let’s all channel a little Paulo Coelho, the philosopher and author of The Alchemist, and change our perspective (who had Paulo Coelho on their H^2 bingo card this morning?).

If guests are dining out less, well then, the competitive landscape just became a little more fierce and I’d say more interesting.

Restaurant operators – how are you going to compete? That’s NOT a rhetorical question, so I’ll ask again, how are you going to compete?

I spent Tuesday up in Boston with our friends at Toast and yes, I got to listen, learn and I’d like to think participate in a discussion about leveraging data and the importance of making more data-driven decisions.

This isn’t a commercial for Toast (and you can’t even say the word “toast” at Branded nowadays without Schatzy bringing up his newfound love of sourdough bread), but I am making the point that leveraging data helps restaurants pivot quickly, anticipate consumer shifts and be more anticipatory.

I’m no longer going to argue with people about the value of guest data, and the importance of benchmarking b/c while I know there are industry leaders that have won with instincts, experience, and grit, all these things would be exponentially stronger when paired with and powered by data.

And now that there are data sets and tools available to make informed, actionable, and tactical decisions, if you’re not thinking about how to implement them into your business, workflow, and decision-making process, I’m sorry, not sorry, you’re going to be left behind (and that was a polite way of saying you’re going to lose).

Readers of the H^2 know that I have a big love of Fishbowl and its guest relationship management platform. This platform, as I do, respects the rule of three and it does so by unifying guest data, automating marketing and building loyalty.

This isn’t a commercial about Fishbowl. It’s an argument for smart benchmarking as a competitive strategy to identify opportunities and risks in real-time.

Specifically, I’ve become enamored with Fishbowl’s “Intelligence Edge” primarily b/c it features competitive pricing monitoring tools. Our industry is fully recognized as one that is fast paced and margin tight. Operators therefore need the current menu prices of direct competitors to allow them to understand what’s happening right now as opposed to relying on instincts and guesswork.

My paternal grandfather, who owned a bodega (defined as a small, independent urban corner store), told my dad a story, that my dad told me, and that I’m now sharing you.

The story is about a customer at my grandfather’s store that asked for the price of lamb chops. When my grandfather told her they were $0.59 per pound, the customer complained that the store across the street was selling them for $0.49 per pound. My grandfather told the customer that she should purchase them across the street, but the customer said she couldn’t do that, b/c the store across the street was out of lamb chops. My grandfather told the woman, that when he was out of lamb chops, the price he offered to customers was $0.39 per pound.

My point (other than having a laugh about the price of lamb chops in 1953) is that accurate, real-time, and local pricing visibility are important. The days of manually collecting data are over and thank goodness b/c those days were labor-intensive, inefficient, and expensive.

Speaking of real-time, I had a call this week with Branded’s digital signage partner, Vistify, and they’re in the weeds with a restaurant company that let’s just say has built quite a successful business selling tacos.

This taco company is currently using menu boards that aren’t dynamic and as a result, the changes they wish to make take days to push through (days?!? wait?!? what?!?).

This obviously doesn’t tie in well with the customer experience environment the restaurant company needs and they’re not happy with it (“Any color the customer wants, as long as it’s black.” Henry Ford). 😊

This isn’t a commercial for Vistify, but dynamic (and user-friendly) menu boards are essential for Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) operators b/c they transform what was once a static sign into a profit-driving, and data-responsive tool.

Only a few minutes after my call with Vistify, I received a text from Schatzy where he shared an article from our friends at QSR Magazine about Why QSRs Should Treat TikTok Like a Second Menu Board.

This isn’t a commercial for QSR Magazine, but the article by Megan Wolfe, is loaded with information and she wants operators to know that by the time a Gen Z customer walks to your counter, they already know what they’re ordering and TikTok is a big part of their decision-making.

Operators, are you embracing TikTok?

This isn’t a commercial for TikTok, but as Ms. Wolfe makes clear, “TikTok is where young consumers discover new food, decide where to eat, and learn how to order. It’s important for your brand to be a part of that conversation and capitalize on this significant acquisition channel.”

Of course, this article made me smile especially when it talked about how being “on” TikTok isn’t enough, and the need to use digital menu boards to A/B test viral creations in select markets and if a remix performs well, to scale it into a limited time offer (“LTO”) or permanent menu item.

Vistify, TikTok, Ms. Wolfe, let’s talk collaboration and I’m happy to host (using Schatzy’s credit card, of course).

I could go on with the many other signs I saw this week, but I won’t (and I just felt the breeze from your eyeroll and head turn at the thought of this week’s Top of the Fold being any longer). 😊

Yes, I’m fired up about the amazing work and collaborations that are underway with so many technologists and operators, but I’m also excited b/c I know we’re still in the early innings.

None of this is easy and change is hard, but it’s also completely necessary.

This isn’t a commercial for Branded Hospitality, but if there are operators that would like to connect and talk about how to lean-in and embrace the playbook we believe will help you stay ahead of the curve (and keep you from Blockbustering), feel free to reach out.

One final note, to all the folks heading down to the Prosper Forum this weekend, I look forward to seeing old friends and making new ones.

This is one of Branded’s favorite events each year as it’s where industry leaders gather and focus on how we can create a better table and elevate the future of foodservice & hospitality.

It takes a village.