In-between Ads, Some Football

Friends of Branded!

Happy Saturday and I hope you had a great week.

Tomorrow evening, east coast time, a record-breaking audience of over 200 million US adults (or 80% of US adults) is expected to watch at least part of Super Bowl LX. There are an estimated 121 million people that plan to attend or host a party, while 18 million plan to watch in a bar or a restaurant.

The Big Game is expected to drive over $20 billion in total consumer spending on food, drinks, and apparel (and according to the National Chicken Council and its annual Chicken Wing Report, Americans are projected to eat 1.48 billion chicken wings while watching the Patriots and Seahawks compete for the Lombardi Trophy).

The name of the Big Game, the “Super Bowl” was coined by Kansas City Chiefs owner and American Football League (“AFL”) Founder, Lamar Hunt in 1966 and was inspired by a popular toy his children played with, the “Super Ball.“ While initially used jokingly to describe the championship game between the AFL and the NFL, the name the “Super Bowl,“ stuck the landing and officially became the name of the championship game in 1969. So, there you go.

My mom’s favorite part of the Super Bowl was always the commercials, and I know that she was far from alone in her enthusiasm for the ads (and was always amazed at the cost of these 30-second spots).

As we head into Super Sunday, what do the ads say about the state of the restaurant industry?

Every year, Super Bowl commercials are treated like a scoreboard for brand confidence. Who shows up, who sits it out, and who tries to steal the moment. This year’s lineup won’t just entertain, it will quietly tell us where the restaurant industry actually stands and the message is clear, this is not a “brand flex” moment. This is a “prove it pays” one.

The restaurant industry most certainly didn’t disappear from Super Bowl LX, but it did get a great deal more selective.

Several restaurant brands are going big on the Super Bowl despite cost pressures across the industry and two of my favorites are Dairy Queen and Chipotle.

DQ, my Adirondack deli that holds the key to my belly, is leaning into pop culture and football humor to drive buzz, while Chipotle is using the event as a promotional engine (and tying the game-day moments to app redemptions). The takeaway, brands that remain bold with marketing are trying to drive transactional behavior, not just brand awareness (this is a shift from pure splash to measurable ROI).

Yes, food and dining still dominate Super Bowl culture, but look closer and you’ll notice something important, fewer traditional restaurant chains are involved and taking their place, we have delivery platforms, food-adjacent tech, and CPG brands.

The restaurant brands that are showing up are tying their ads to promotions, loyalty, or app behavior. That tells us operators aren’t anti-marketing, but they are anti-wasted spend. At an average price-tag of $8 million per 30-seconds (my mom wouldn’t believe this price-tag), ads that don’t connect to orders, downloads or repeat visits are now seen as indulgent, not iconic.

The ad line-up is leaning heavily on humor b/c value messaging in this environment is hard to pull off. Inflation fatigue is real, guests are sensitive about it, and operators are squeezed. Instead of shouting about prices or portions, brands are leaning into humor, celebrities, cultural moments, and self-awareness.

Why did they do this you ask? Fantastic question.

The reason is b/c making people smile is often the fastest path to staying relevant when wallets are tight. The ads aren’t saying “come eat with us.” They’re saying, “remember us.”

While not new to the Super Bowl advertising line-up, delivery platforms and food-commerce companies are showing up loud and proud for Super Bowl LX (while many operators didn’t). That’s NOT a knock on our industry, it’s the reality. Tech platforms and food-commerce companies have scale, data and can spread customer acquisition costs across millions of transactions. Restaurants, on the other hand, feel every dollar, measure success store by store and can’t afford marketing that doesn’t convert.

Don’t look at this year’s Super Bowl as exposing weakness, but rather in how it’s exposing discipline. Super Bowl marketing is evolving from “brand stamp” to “activation platform.”

The commercials this year aren’t about awareness, they’re about activation. The smartest restaurant-related plays aren’t just ads, they’re triggers that offer free items, app downloads, loyalty redemptions and lean on second-screen behavior (watching the TV while using your phone to act).

The Super Bowl is no longer the finish line; it’s the top of the funnel. When a company is unable to tie the moment to a measurable action, they pass on buying the moment altogether (and that’s good discipline).

If you takeaway one thing from this week’s Top of the Fold, it’s this, restaurants are acting like operators again. For years, restaurants were told to think like brands, but this year, the Super Bowl suggests there’s been a pivot. Restaurants want ROI over optics, data over dopamine and repeat visits over viral moments.

Don’t take this as a sign that restaurants are lacking in ambition but rather embrace that restaurants are being more mature.

My read of the Super Bowl ad line-up, it does NOT say restaurants are struggling. It says restaurants are smarter, more selective, more performance driven and less interested in marketing theater.

Super Bowl ads no longer equal guaranteed foot traffic, but well-executed ads, tied to loyalty, digital redemption codes and social amplification, can drive measurable engagement.

In today’s environment, don’t confuse restraint with weakness, it’s strategy. The smartest operators aren’t chasing the loudest moments; they’re chasing the most profitable ones.

Enjoy the commercials (and the Big Game as well).

It takes a village.

This week’s Shoutout goes to our friends and partners at Brooklyn Dumpling Shop and its being selected as a finalist for the 4th Annual Albertsons Companies Innovation Launchpad Competition.

The competition highlights, innovative products focusing on functional foods, low-sugar, high-protein, fiber, and global flavors, with the top three winners sharing over $400,000 in prizes and potential nationwide distribution.

The Brooklyn Dumpling Shop team will be serving its signature Korean BBQ Beef, Kung Pao Chicken, and Chicken Parmesan dumplings to a panel of esteemed judges.

The New York-based fast-casual chain is known for its automat-style service and unique global fusion dumplings. Under the leadership of CEO Jeff Galletly, the brand has aggressively expanded its footprint, which included an investment round led by RSE Ventures to further accelerate its presence in both physical restaurants and the consumer packaged goods (CPG) frozen aisle

Brooklyn Dumpling Shop is among 60 brands selected to compete for opportunities to launch their products in Albertsons Cos. stores, which include major retail banners like Safeway, Acme, and Jewel-Osco.

Finalists will present their products live on March 3, 2026, during the Natural Products Expo West in Anaheim, California.

When private-equity firm 4x4 Capital acquired Bob Evans Restaurants, it wasn’t nostalgia, it was a signal.

In a market obsessed with fast-casual, tech buzzwords, and unit growth, this deal reminds us of something quieter but more important: that cash flow, brand recognition, and fixable fundamentals still matter.

Bob Evans isn’t flashy. It’s legacy family dining. And yet, PE saw enough there to believe the brand isn’t broken, it’s under-optimized.

This isn’t about rapid expansion. It’s about tightening operations, sharpening the value proposition, and letting consistency do the work. Middle-market PE isn’t chasing hype right now; it’s chasing businesses where execution can unlock returns.

The broader takeaway?

Not every legacy restaurant is dying. Some are simply waiting for owners willing to operate, not just financial engineer.

In today’s environment, boring can be beautiful, if the numbers still pencil.

And private equity just reminded the industry of that.

The Bob Evans deal caught my attention as it made me think about Branded’s involvement in the recapitalization of Gregorys Coffee. Yes, on the surface these deals couldn’t look more different: a legacy family dining restaurant vs a modern, urban coffee culture.

But stay with me friends.

Both the sale of Bob Evans and the recapitalization of Gregorys Coffee are bets on optimization, not reinvention. The concepts work. The guests are there. The opportunity isn’t about changing the menu, it’s about tightening operations, pacing growth, and letting disciplined execution do the heavy lifting.

This isn’t growth-at-all-costs capital. It’s operator-minded capital.

Whether you run 500 units or 50, the message is clear: If your unit economics are real and your levers are visible, capital is still available.

To learn more about Gregorys Coffee or to discuss opportunities with this Craveworthy backed brand, please click here.